In this article, we will be covering the 15 fastest declining states in the US. If you wish to skip our detailed analysis, you can move directly to the 5 Fastest Declining States in the US.
Population Dynamics Across the US
As reported by the US Census Bureau, the US resident population increased by 0.4% in 2022 after witnessing a historically low change between 2020 and 2021. The primary driver of this population growth was the net international migration which added 1,010,923 people to the country. Simultaneously, the most significant year-over-year increase in total births since 2007 was witnessed. The statistics indicated a return of the US to the pre-pandemic era.
Region-wise, the country’s South was the most populous and fastest-growing region in terms of population. The region received 1,282,675 residents as a result of net international migration of 414,740 and positive net domestic migration of 867,935. 153,601 residents were added to the West of the US. A natural increase of 154,405 was a major factor driving population growth in the region. On the contrary, the population in the Northeast and the Midwest dropped by 0.4% and 0.1% respectively, mostly as a result of negative net domestic migration.
State-Wise Analysis
Among all US states, the population grew the most numerically in Texas as represented by the numeric growth of 470,708 between 2021 and 2022. The state also qualifies as one of the states with a resident population of above 30 million. Florida came second while it witnessed a population increase of 416,754 but the state recorded the highest percentage increase of 1.9% in the country. Net migration mainly led to the state’s population growth.
New York depicted opposite statistics. The largest annual numeric as well as percent decline in population was witnessed in the state. This was majorly due to the net domestic migration of -299,557. Population decreases were seen in eighteen states in 2022. Six-figure declines in resident population were reported in the states of California and Illinois. Net domestic outmigration was responsible for the significant drops in the state populations.
The births and deaths in a state also impact the state population. A natural decrease occurred in 24 US states in 2022. Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio experienced the highest negative natural change of -40,216, -23,021, and -19,543 respectively. You can also view the fastest-declining cities in Florida and other fastest-declining cities in the US. On the other extreme, the largest natural increase was recorded in the states of Texas, California, and New York.
Prominent Declines in New York
Three-quarters of the overall population decline in New York state has been accounted for by New York City in 2023. On March 14, The New York Times reported that New York City lost almost 6% of its population, or 550,000 residents between 2020 and 2023. Four of the five boroughs witnessed a decline in their populations in 2023. While more than 25,000 residents left the Bronx borough, Brooklyn and Queens lost more than 28,000 people and over 26,000 people respectively. Manhattan was the only borough that gained residents. People also left the commuter areas around NYC.
City officials have opposed these statistics since they believe that the growing number of migrants and the residents of group settings including dorms and shelters have not been accounted for. The Department of City Planning further unveiled that the city received 180,000 migrants since the Spring of 2022.
Housing affordability issues have been cited as a major reason behind lower- and middle-income residents who are mostly leaving New York City. This is evident from the fact that families with incomes between $32,000 and $65,000 left the city at the fastest rate in 2022, other than the Black or Hispanic. Furthermore, New York and California were the two top states that had the highest share of people who moved out of the states, out of the total number of movers in 2022. Many New Yorkers moved to cheaper states such as New Jersey where they still had the ease of commuting to work. Some of them chose a warmer state such as Florida as their new destination. The easiestand affordable commuter towns to NYC have also been previously discussed.
Real Estate Options to Seek
To emphasize the housing crisis in NYC, JP Morgan has reported that 79% of the working-age households in the city tend to be house-burdened while they do not have earnings enough to cover the cost of living. The dilemma is that the state of New York is expected to continue facing this housing crisis in 2024, as reported by The New York Times on January 4. Apartment construction is limited which strengthens the existing inventory supply. Home prices and rents continue to be one of the highest nationwide. Amidst the prevailing conditions, American homebuilders continue to offer reasonable housing options to settle in numerous states across the country. Some of these include Century Communities, Inc. (NYSE:CCS), M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:MDC), and Dream Finders Homes, Inc. (NASDAQ:DFH).
Century Communities, Inc. (NYSE:CCS) is a major American homebuilder that is engaged in the construction, innovative marketing, and sale of homes for diverse buyers. The company operates in 18 states and more than 45 markets across the country. On March 21, Century Communities, Inc. (NYSE:CCS) reported that it conducted a groundbreaking ceremony for its new San Antonio community on March 8. The community ‘Spring Creek’ offers affordable homes with prices starting from the mid $200,000s. The new community offers convenient access to downtown San Antonio and is expected to open in summer 2024.
M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:MDC) operates Richmond American Homes which is one of the largest homebuilders in the country. The homebuilder has operations in multiple states including Alabama, Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Idaho, Maryland, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, and Washington. On February 14, the company reported the grand opening of the Presley model home at White Oak Reserve in Fredericksburg. White Oak Reserve is positioned close to downtown Fredericksburg and boasts new homes priced from the $700,000s. Quick move-in opportunities are also available.
Dream Finders Homes, Inc. (NASDAQ:DFH) engages in the construction of single-family homes in Florida, Texas, Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Colorado, and the Washington, D.C. metropolitan area. On March 21, the company reported the development of Bungalow Walk at Waterside, its new community in Lakewood Ranch. This development has enhanced the presence of Dream Finders Homes, Inc. (NASDAQ:DFH) in Tampa. Community sales will begin in early April. Downtown Sarasota and Siesta Key can be visited while staying in the community. Other details about the new community and pricing will be disclosed once sales begin.
With this context, let’s move to the 15 fastest declining states in the US.
15 Fastest Declining States in the US
Our Methodology:
In order to compile a list of the 15 declining states in the US, we sourced data from the US Census Bureau. The 2022 National and State Population Estimates reveal the population change in states between 2021 and 2022 which we have used as our metric. Hence, we have ranked the 15 declining states in the US in descending order of their change in population between 2021 and 2022, to depict population declines.
15 Fastest Declining States in the US
15. Ohio
Percentage Change in Population (2021-2022): -0.1%
Between July 2021 and July 2022, the population in Ohio declined by 0.1%. The state also recorded the 10th largest numeric decline of 8,284 among all other US states. Hence, Ohio ranks among the 15 fastest-declining states in the US.
14. Alaska
Percentage Change in Population (2021-2022): -0.1%
Alaska’s population went down from 734,182 in 2021 to 733,583 in 2022. This represents an overall population decrease of 0.1% from 2021 to 2022 and ranks Alaska as one of the fastest declining states in the country.
13. Massachusetts
Percentage Change in Population (2021-2022): -0.1%
Massachusetts is another US state to experience a declining population. As recorded by the US Census Bureau, the state’s population dropped by 0.1% between 2021 and 2022.
12. New Mexico
Percentage Change in Population (2021-2022): -0.2%
The percentage change in New Mexico’s population was reported to be -0.2% from 2021 to 2022 which indicates that the state population decreased over the year. Therefore, New Mexico is one of the fastest declining US states.
11. Maryland
Percentage Change in Population (2021-2022): -0.2%
Maryland’s population changed from 6,174,610 in 2021 to 6,164,660 in 2022. Overall, the population fell by 0.2%. The 8th highest numeric decline in population was witnessed in Maryland during this period.
10. California
Percentage Change in Population (2021-2022): -0.3%
Numerically, California’s population fell by 113,649 between 2021 and 2022. The percentage population decline of 0.3% in the state’s population ranks it among other US states declining in terms of population.
9. Rhode Island
Percentage Change in Population (2021-2022): -0.3%
As represented by the population change of -0.3% in Rhode Island, the state’s population dropped from 1,096,985 in 2021 to 1,093,734 in 2022. This ranks the state as the 9th fastest declining state in the US.
8. Pennsylvania
Percentage Change in Population (2021-2022): -0.3%
Between July 2021 and July 2022, the numeric decrease in Pennsylvania’s population was recorded at 40,051. This equates to a percent decline of 0.3% from 2021 to 2022.
7. Mississippi
Percentage Change in Population (2021-2022): -0.3%
The fastest-declining states in the United States include Mississippi as well. The change in the state’s population from 2,949,586 in 2021 to 2,940,057 in 2022 shows that the overall population went down by 0.3% in the given period.
6. Oregon
Percentage Change in Population (2021-2022): -0.4%
Oregon is another state where the population has recently declined. 16,164 was the numeric decrease in the state’s population between 2021 and 2022 while the percent decline was recorded at 0.4%, the 6th highest in the country.
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Disclosure: None. 15 Fastest Declining States in the US is originally published on Insider Monkey.
