2024 Economic Forecast: Inflation, Recession, GDP Growth (2024)

FAQs

2024 Economic Forecast: Inflation, Recession, GDP Growth? ›

Consumer spending, investment, and government spending will all grow by at least 2% in 2024; exports will grow by more than 4%. Consumer price index inflation falls below the 3% threshold in the first quarter of 2024, though it remains close to that level for the first half of the year.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2024 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP increased 3.4 percent.

The PCE Index is projected to fall to 2.1% by fourth-quarter 2024, averaging 2.3% for the year. Supply chain improvements and falling housing prices have yet to be fully reflected in inflation numbers. Average inflation from 2024 to 2028 should dip just under the Federal Reserve's 2.0% inflation target.

China's economy and society in Q1 2024 at a glance: GDP: RMB 29.63 trillion (US$4.1 trillion); +5.3% y/y. Retail sales: RMB 12 trillion (US$1.66 trillion); +4.7% Industrial added value*: +4.5%

The Economic Outlook projects steady global GDP growth of 3.1% in 2024, the same as the 3.1% in 2023, followed by a slight pick-up to 3.2% in 2025.

For the world as a whole, growth is projected to edge up from 3.1% in 2023 to 3.2% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025. This is a marginally upward revision compared to the Winter Forecast.

Food prices are expected to continue to decelerate in 2024 compared to recent years. In 2024, all food prices are predicted to increase 2.2 percent, with a prediction interval of 0.7 to 3.8 percent.

Global inflation is forecast to decline steadily, from 6.8 percent in 2023 to 5.9 percent in 2024 and 4.5 percent in 2025, with advanced economies returning to their inflation targets sooner than emerging market and developing economies. Core inflation is generally projected to decline more gradually.

ECB's De Guindos sees inflation moving towards 2% goal in 2025.

What are the economists predictions for 2024? ›

Economic growth is projected to slow in 2024 amid increased unemployment and lower inflation. CBO expects the Federal Reserve to respond by reducing interest rates, starting in the middle of the year. In CBO's projections, economic growth rebounds in 2025 and then moderates in later years.

United States. The United States is the most powerful country in the world by economy. It is a huge country with a population of 337.12 million as of 2024. Moreover, the United States has a GDP of $28.781 trillion, which is growing at a rate of 2.7% during the current year.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2024, according to the “advance” estimate. In the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP increased 3.4 percent.

“Growth in India is projected to remain strong at 6.8 per cent in 2024 (FY25) and 6.5 per cent in 2025 (FY26), with the robustness reflecting continuing strength in domestic demand and a rising working-age population,” the IMF said in its report.

We foresee consumer spending growth of 2.3% in 2024, supported by solid early-year momentum, following a 2.2% advance in 2023. Slow disinflation. Headline and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% month over month in March, surpassing consensus expectations for a third straight month.

NRF described consumers as resilient. National Retail Federation today forecast that retail sales will increase in 2024 between 2.5% and 3.5% to between $5.23 trillion and $5.28 trillion. And that massive figure doesn't even include cars, gas and restaurants.

The research of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, currently puts the probability of a U.S. recession before February 2025 at 58%, that's about as high as a forward-looking recession probability has been on this model since the 1980s.