America's Fiscal Future (2024)

Overview

The Nation’s Unsustainable Fiscal Path

The federal government faces an unsustainable fiscal future. In February 2024, we released our annual reporton the nation’s fiscal health, highlighting both short-term and long-term risks.

Federal debt held by the public (that is, the total amount of money that the federal government owes to its investors) will continue to grow faster than the economy, which is unsustainable.

Federal debt held by the public -- past, present, and future.

America's Fiscal Future (1)

Historically, debt has decreased during peacetime and economic expansions. But this pattern has changed in recent decades. Unless current revenue and spending policies change, by 2028 debt will reach its historical high of 106 percent of GDP, according to our simulation. If unaddressed, it will grow more than twice as fast as the economy and reach 200 percent of GDP by 2050.

Why Is This a Problem?

The growing debt could create additional challenges for federal fiscal management, which could in turn cause challenges for American households and individuals, too. These potential challenges include:

  • Risks to economic growth and lower investment in the private sector. These issues could lead to lower wages due to losses in productivity.
  • Upward pressure on interest rates that would make it more expensive for individuals to borrow money—for example to purchase a car or home.

These challenges may intensify over time if unaddressed.You can learn more about thecurrent financial condition here.

Why Is It Happening?

The debt is growing because the country keeps borrowing to finance an increasingly large gap between government spending and revenue.

The underlying conditions of the problem have existed for over two decades. Every fiscal year since 2002, the federal government has run a deficit—meaning spending exceeds its revenues—and added to its debt.

Tracking program spending and revenue over time

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America's Fiscal Future (2)

Demographic and other trends are contributing to the problem. The U.S. population is aging and health care costs are rising. These trends put pressure on Social Security and Medicare programs—both of which have seen declines in their trust fund balances. And deficits could increase even more as higher interest rates combine with rising debt.

Another contributor to rising debt is the interest payments the federal government owes to its investors. In fiscal year 2023, federal net interest spending increased 39 percent from fiscal year 2022 (from $475 billion to $659 billion). The increase is driven in part by higher interest rates. Starting in 2029, we project the federal government will pay more than $1 trillion in net interest costs every year.

What’s the Solution?

Congress should develop a long-term fiscal plan to provide a cohesive picture of the government’s fiscal goals and a road map for achieving them.

A fiscal plan could establish fiscal rules that impose long-lasting numerical limits on the budget. The plan could also establish fiscal targets to help manage debt. Our report identifies key considerations for the design, implementation, and enforcement of fiscal rules and targets.

How Does GAO Help?

Fiscal simulation. We update this simulation each year to monitor the government’s long-term fiscal outlook. We also analyze the drivers of debt and the trends contributing to it. Find the details inour annual fiscal health report.

Debt sensitivity analysis. This analysis can give policymakers a more complete picture of how potential economic and fiscal changes to the variables in our simulation can affect the fiscal outlook. You can explore the effects of different variables on the debt inour interactive graphic.

Fiscal gap sensitivity analysis. The fiscal gap is a way of quantifying the policy changes required to meet a given target debt ratio. It measures how much primary deficits must be reduced through policy changes (some combination of revenue increases or spending cuts) over a period of time. Explore the variables that affect the fiscal gapin our interactive fiscal gap calculator.

America's Fiscal Future (2024)

FAQs

Who is the United States government borrowing money from? ›

The federal government borrows money from the public by issuing securities—bills, notes, and bonds—through the Treasury. Treasury securities are attractive to investors because they are: Backed by the full faith and credit of the United States government. Offered in a wide range of maturities.

Who does the US owe the most money to? ›

Nearly half of all US foreign-owned debt comes from five countries.
Country/territoryUS foreign-owned debt (January 2023)
Japan$1,104,400,000,000
China$859,400,000,000
United Kingdom$668,300,000,000
Belgium$331,100,000,000
6 more rows

Why does the US keep borrowing money? ›

The federal government needs to borrow money to pay its bills when its ongoing spending activities and investments cannot be funded by federal revenues alone. Decreases in federal revenue are largely due to either a decrease in tax rates or individuals or corporations making less money.

Who owns a majority of US debt? ›

The major international owners of US debt include Japan ($1.1T), China, UK, Belgium, Switzerland, Cayman Islands and smaller amounts from the rest of the world. After the recent weak treasury auction, US government officials warned that they are seeing waning demand from international buyers.

How much does China owe the US? ›

The United States pays interest on approximately $850 billion in debt held by the People's Republic of China. China, however, is currently in default on its sovereign debt held by American bondholders.

Can the US ever pay its debt? ›

Thus, debt is continually paid down and new debt incurred, to be paid down by creation of new debt, ad infinitum. If total indebtedness as a percentage of the national economy does not grow, this can continue forever.

Is China's debt higher than the US? ›

China's debt is more than 250 percent of GDP, higher than the United States. It remains lower than Japan, the world's most indebted leading economy, but some experts say the concern is that China's debt has surged at the sort of pace that usually leads to a financial bust and economic slump.

Which country has no debt? ›

Singapore is one of Asia's major financial centers. It is also one of the most prosperous countries on the planet. And all this has been achieved without taking on any meaningful public debt. In fact, very much like Norway, Singapore has more assets than debt.

Who does the US owe 34 trillion to? ›

The national debt is the total amount of money the U.S. owes its creditors, which includes “the public” (individual investors, businesses, commercial banks, pension funds, mutual funds, state and local governments, the Federal Reserve System and foreign governments) as well as other parts of the federal government, ...

What would happen if the US paid off its debt? ›

Answer and Explanation:

If the U.S. was to pay off their debt ultimately, there is not much that would happen. Paying off the debt implies that the government will now focus on using the revenue collected primarily from taxes to fund its activities.

Why isn't U.S. debt a problem? ›

Is debt at that level a problem? For now, it isn't. The U.S. government borrows trillions of dollars a year at very low interest rates on global financial markets, and there doesn't appear to be much private sector borrowing that is crowded out by U.S. Treasury borrowing right now.

Should we worry about U.S. debt? ›

Rising debt reduces business investment and slows economic growth. It also increases expectations of higher rates of inflation and erosion of confidence in the U.S. dollar. The federal government should not allow budget imbalances to harm the economy and families across the country.

How much money does the government owe to social security? ›

As of 2021, the Trust Fund contained (or alternatively, was owed) $2.908 trillion. The Trust Fund is required by law to be invested in non-marketable securities issued and guaranteed by the "full faith and credit" of the federal government. These securities earn a market rate of interest.

Does Russia own US debt? ›

Russia owns less than 2.5 $Billion in US Treasury notes, a trifling amount. Russia does not “own” US debt. It just owns bonds that are not callable and it takes its interest payments as agreed. Russia has sold almost 100 $Billion in US bonds to reduce its vulnerability to US sanctions.

What happens if China dumps US bonds? ›

If China (or any other nation that has a trade surplus with the U.S.) stops buying U.S. Treasuries or even starts dumping its U.S. forex reserves, its trade surplus would become a trade deficit—something which no export-oriented economy would want, as they would be worse off as a result.

Does the US government borrow from the Fed? ›

The Federal Reserve and the Department of the Treasury also work together to borrow money when the government needs to raise cash. The Federal Reserve conducts Treasury securities auctions on behalf of the Department of the Treasury. Examples of Treasury securities include: Treasury bonds.

Why does the US borrow money from China? ›

Chinese loans to the U.S., through the purchase of U.S. debt, enable the U.S. to buy Chinese products. It's a win-win situation for both nations, with both benefiting mutually. China has a huge market for its products, and the U.S. benefits from the economic prices of Chinese goods.

Who does China owe debt to? ›

[2] A report by the credit rating agency S&P Global in 2022 estimated that 79 per cent of corporate debt in China was owed by SOEs (the IMF does not break down the proportion of debt owed by SOEs).

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