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Loan losses are rising again at banks after reaching historically low levels. Lenders reported $19 billion in charge-offs — losses on loans that lenders deem unrecoverable — in the second quarter, the highest level in more than three years.
More than half of recent losses came from credit card lending, but CRE (commercial real estate) has also experienced a worrying rise in borrower defaults. Borrowers with variable-rate loans are now saddled with higher repayments, and landlords are struggling to rent out space in office buildings due to remote work.
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There are still several sources of strain on the U.S. financial sector. Funding costs and declining income weakened profitability in the second quarter. Banks have lost deposits for the past five quarters, as more folks tap into their savings. Banks are still using the Federal Reserve’s emergency lending programs. Loans from these Fed facilities have stayed above $100 billion since the first week of June, though borrowing has stabilized since a string of bank failures this spring.
This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.
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