Bond market outlook | Fidelity Institutional (2024)

Bond market outlook | Fidelity Institutional (1)

Key Takeaways

  • Mutual funds that hold intermediate-term, investment-grade bonds could benefit from the end of interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve.
  • Yields on high-quality bonds have risen back to around their historically normal levels.
  • Higher yields enable bonds to once again play their traditional role as sources of reliable, low-risk income for investors who buy and hold them to maturity.
  • Professional investment managers have the research, resources, and investment expertise necessary to identify these opportunities and help manage the risks associated with buying and selling bonds when interest rates are likely to change.

For bond investors, 2023 was one long Groundhog Day. As the year began, the investment-grade bond market poked its head out of the burrow where it had hibernated since interest rates fell to near zero in 2020. What it saw looked like the end of the Federal Reserve's interest-rate increases and the deep freeze during which investment-grade bonds lost value for an unprecedented 2 years in a row.

Instead, the Fed spent the year raising rates, pausing, then raising again and the market resumed its nap. Those higher rates lifted the coupon yields that bonds pay to investors but they hurt prices, which are also part of a bond's total return. Indeed, as 2023 ended, the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index, which represents the vast, investible universe of US bonds, was roughly in the same place it was in when the year started.

Jeff Moore manages the Fidelity® Advisor Investment Grade Bond Fund (FGBPX) and he believes that 2024 will be what others expected 2023 to be for investment-grade bonds: The start of a new era of opportunity for investors who previously felt they had little choice but to either brave the volatility of stocks, or to hide in cash and let inflation rob them of their savings.

Moore believes the Fed's campaign of raising rates to battle inflation is mostly over and that the central bank has achieved what it set out to do. Now, he says, "Because of the Fed's interest-rate policies, I believe bonds can once again do what they have historically done: Deliver income while helping protect the value of investors' portfolios from the ups and downs of the stock market."

If an investor is looking for reliable income, now can be a good time to consider investment-grade bonds. If an investor is looking to diversify their portfolio, they should consider a medium-term investment-grade bond fund which could benefit if and when the Fed pivots from raising interest rates. Says Moore: "I think the next 2 years could be a high total return environment for bonds."

It's all about the Fed

Because bond prices typically fall when interest rates rise, bond markets have long been sensitive to changes in rates by central banks. But they are also influenced by other factors such as the health of the economy and that of the companies and governments that issue bonds. Since the global financial crisis, though, the interest rate and asset purchase policies of the Fed and other central banks have become by far the most important forces acting upon the world's bond markets. In 2022, the focus of their policies shifted from supporting markets to trying to fight inflation, and bond markets have reacted badly as the battle against inflation has continued longer than initially expected.

The Fed's rate hikes ended the bull market in bond prices that had run since 1982. But Moore thinks a new bull may be on the horizon. He says, "Interest rates are now back to almost 30-year norms. Whether you want to build a portfolio with Treasury, municipal, investment-grade corporate, or high-yield bonds, you can get respectable yield and you could do well as rates plateau. You could do even better when interest rates head back down again."

Moore says the actions of the Fed matter far more for bond prices than worries about rising credit delinquencies, the inversion of yield curves (when short-term bonds pay more interest than long-term ones), or the possibility that foreign governments will stop buying US government bonds. "All of those things can vex the markets, but what really matters is whether the Fed has stopped raising rates," he says.

Moore says that while the Fed doesn't want to raise—or cut—rates, "If we get some really low inflation, they're going to have to move quickly to start cutting because the Fed doesn't want to get caught up in the election cycle. That means they'd need to cut before June."

A recession-ready investment

If the Federal Reserve doesn't manage to engineer a soft landing for the economy in 2024, bonds may offer investors an attractive strategy for helping manage through a potential recession.

Recessions are times when economic activity contracts, corporate profits decline, unemployment rises, and credit for businesses and consumers becomes scarce. Recessions are not happy times for investors. During the 11 recessions the US has endured since 1950, stocks have historically fallen an average of 15% a year.*

But bonds have historically thrived when the economy has contracted. In every recession since 1950, bonds have delivered higher returns than stocks and cash. That's partly because the Federal Reserve and other central banks have often cut interest rates in hopes of stimulating economic activity during a recession. Rate cuts typically cause bond yields to fall and bond prices to rise.

For investors in or nearing retirement who want to reduce their exposure to stock market volatility, the period before a recession may be a good time to consider shifting some money from stocks to bonds. That's because the Fed is typically raising interest rates to slow growth, which means lower bond prices and higher yields.

The investor should keep in mind, though, that the bond universe is a far more vast and variegated place than the stock market and not all bonds perform equally well during recessions. Investment-grade corporate bonds and government bonds such as US Treasurys have historically delivered higher returns during recessions than high-yield corporate bonds, and Treasurys could outperform corporate bonds in a recession. Moore expects that prices of high-quality corporate bonds will recover strongly once the economy and inflation slow, and the Fed begins cutting rates to stimulate growth.

What about volatility?

Investors who have looked to bonds as safe places to preserve their savings have found their faith tested by the volatility of the past 2 years. Moore points out, though, that during 2021 and 2022, which he calls the worst market conditions in 50 years, bonds still declined much less than did the stocks of the S&P 500 which experienced a bear market that was not particularly severe by historical standards.

Like stocks, bonds are constantly being bought and sold by investors ranging from governments to your neighbors. That means their prices rise and fall over time. Unlike stocks, however, would-be bond investors who are uncomfortable with the idea that prices rise and fall much like an ocean tide can opt to instead purchase individual bonds rather than shares of bond mutual funds or ETFs.

A popular way to hold individual bonds is by building a portfolio of bonds with various maturities: This is called a bond ladder. Ladders can help create predictable streams of income, reduce exposure to volatile stocks, and manage some potential risks from changing interest rates.

The Federal Reserve is expected to stop raising and potentially even lower rates if the economy weakens. A ladder may be useful when yields and interest rates are increasing because it regularly frees up part of a portfolio so the investor can take advantage of new, higher rates in the future. At the same time, when rates begin to fall, a bond ladder structure can ensure that at least part of the bond portfolio is maintained at the higher yields that prevailed when the investor had originally invested in the ladder. If all the investor's money is invested in bonds that mature on the same date, they might mature before rates rise or after they have begun to fall, limiting the investor's options.

By contrast, bonds in a ladder mature at various times in the future, which enables the investor to reinvest money at various times and in various ways, depending on where opportunities may exist.

More fun for funds

While it may be a great time to buy, hold, and ladder bonds, the outlook is also bright for investors in funds that manage bonds with an eye to making money as prices rise. Funds offer a way for investors with fewer assets to get exposure to bonds even if they cannot afford to build a ladder of individual bonds. Moore says he has bought more bonds with longer maturities. "I have bought 10-year Treasury bonds and 10-year bonds from good quality companies because they were yielding 4.25% to 7%. Even if you feel like there's a recession coming, these should be fine."

Moore believes that market conditions now are similar to 2019 when bond indexes returned almost 10% after a big drop in 2018. "As we approach the end of the Fed's tightening cycle, there are scenarios where things could go very well. If you just want to build a bond ladder for reliable income, that's great, but if you care about capital appreciation, you could be kicking yourself for overlooking bond funds if they deliver double-digit return in the next 1 or 2 years."

Finding ideas

If you're interested in adding bonds to your portfolio, Fidelity offers a range of bond mutual funds and exchange-traded funds.

Mutual Funds

  • Fidelity Advisor Investment Grade Bond Fund (FGBPX)
  • Fidelity Advisor Tactical Bond Fund (FBAHX)
  • Fidelity Advisor Total Bond Fund (FEPIX)

ETFs

  • Fidelity Corporate Bond ETF (FCOR)
  • Fidelity Investment Grade Bond ETF (FIBG)
  • Fidelity Investment Grade Securitized ETF (FSEC)
  • Fidelity Tactical Bond ETF (FTBD)
  • Fidelity Total Bond ETF (FBND)
Bond market outlook | Fidelity Institutional (2024)

FAQs

What is the institutional use of bond markets? ›

Individuals and institutions can use bonds for long-term planning, preserving principal, saving, maximizing income, managing interest-rate risk, and diversifying portfolios. Bonds provide a predictable stream of coupon income and their full par value if held to maturity.

Is it a good time to be in the bond market? ›

Yields on high-quality bonds have risen back to around their historically normal levels. Higher yields enable bonds to once again play their traditional role as sources of reliable, low-risk income for investors who buy and hold them to maturity.

What are the largest institutional investors in bonds? ›

Insurers have always been the largest institutional investors of corporate bonds and thus play a central role in corporate funding and investment.

Why are high yield bonds performing well? ›

However, returns on high yield bonds tend to be less volatile because the income component of the return is typically larger, providing an added measure of stability.

How big is the bond market compared to the stock market? ›

Bonds and bank loans form what is known as the credit market. The global credit market in aggregate is about three times the size of the global equity market. Bank loans are not securities under the Securities and Exchange Act, but bonds typically are and are therefore more highly regulated.

Who are the key players in the bond market? ›

Issuers sell bonds or other debt instruments to raise money; most bond issuers are governments, banks, or corporate entities. Underwriters are investment banks and other firms that help issuers sell bonds. Bond purchasers are the corporations, governments, and individuals buying the debt that is being issued.

What is the bond market outlook for 2024? ›

For bond investors, these conditions are nearly ideal. After all, most of a bond's return over time comes from its yield. And falling yields—which we expect in the second half of 2024—boost bond prices. That boost could be especially big given how much money remains on the sidelines, looking for an entry point.

Will bonds outperform stocks in 2024? ›

Bond outlooks improve, but stocks' prospects drop on the heels of 2023′s rally. Better things lie ahead for bonds, but the prospects for stocks, especially U.S. equities, are less rosy.

How will bonds perform in 2024? ›

Starting yields, potential rate cuts and a return to contrasting performance for stocks and bonds could mean an attractive environment for fixed income in 2024.

What are the top 5 institutional investors? ›

Managers ranked by total worldwide institutional assets under management
#Name2021
1Vanguard Group$5,407,000
2BlackRock$5,694,077
3State Street Global$2,905,408
4Fidelity Investments$2,032,626
6 more rows

What are the 5 most common institutional investors? ›

This reading has introduced the subject of managing institutional investor portfolios. The key points made in this reading are as follows: The main institutional investor types are pension plans, sovereign wealth funds, endowments, foundations, banks, and insurance companies.

Who are the three largest institutional investors? ›

Within the world of corporate governance, there has hardly been a more important recent development than the rise of the 'Big Three' asset managers—Vanguard, State Street Global Advisors, and BlackRock.

Do high-yield bonds do well in recession? ›

High-yield corporate bonds

Investor takeaway: We're still cautious on high-yield bonds, but acknowledge that if a recession is avoided, high-yield bonds may still perform well despite low spreads. Over the short run, expect volatility and potential price declines as defaults continue to pile up.

Will the bond market recover? ›

We expect bond yields to decline in line with falling inflation and slower economic growth, but uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's policy moves will likely be a source of volatility. Nonetheless, we are optimistic that fixed income will deliver positive returns in 2024.

What happens to high-yield bonds in a recession? ›

High yield bonds: High yield or junk bonds usually pay a higher yield and carry a higher credit risk because they are issued by municipalities or companies with a greater risk of defaulting. So during a recession, the price of high yield or junk bonds generally falls.

Why do institutions issue bonds? ›

Companies, governments and municipalities issue bonds to get money for various things, which may include: Providing operating cash flow. Financing debt. Funding capital investments in schools, highways, hospitals, and other projects.

What does the US government use bonds for? ›

Government bonds assist in funding deficits in the federal budget and are used to raise capital for various projects such as infrastructure spending. However, government bonds are also used by the Federal Reserve Bank to control the nation's money supply.

What do corporations use bonds for? ›

Companies issue corporate bonds to raise money for a variety of purposes, such as building a new plant, purchasing equipment, or growing the business. Corporate bonds are debt obligations of the issuer—the company that issued the bond.

What do institutional investors use? ›

Institutional investors are organizations that pool together funds on behalf of others and invest those funds in a variety of different financial instruments and asset classes. They include investment funds like mutual funds and ETFs, insurance funds, and pension plans as well as investment banks and hedge funds.

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