ian begley
·7 min read
The Knicks will be hosting a Game 7 for the first time in nearly 30 years. In their last Game 7 at home, New York faced Reggie Miller and the Pacers in 1995. They lost that game. They are obviously looking to right that wrong on Sunday.
Below, Brendan Brown – who has spent three decades in the NBA as a coach, scout and broadcaster – breaks down what he’s seeing from this series and what to look for on Sunday afternoon:
BROWN: “I haven’t written about officiating the entire playoffs, but I felt this came into play early in Friday’s game. In the first six minutes, three Pacers got hit on drives to the basket, no call. There were other plays in the first quarter that went against the Knicks. So you are letting it go. You are letting the teams play. But then what is a foul? (Jalen) Brunson goes 0-for-6 in the second quarter, but he is getting hit several times on his moves before the shot release. Then he got frustrated and short-armed shots and hit the front of the rim. And Indiana is then running back at the Knicks. That’s a perfect storm for the Pacers…
“The Knicks shoot 7-for-21 (33 percent) in the quarter. The bench was 0-for-4. The Knicks were 5- for-9 (56 percent) from the line, with Brunson going 1-for-4 in the first half, which is inexplicable. (Miles) McBride had an excellent offensive start to the game (11 points in the first quarter), but was a - 12 in the 2nd quarter. (Tyrese) Haliburton had six assists and no turnovers in the first half. The Knicks only had one turnover in the second quarter - they were just missing shots…
“Meanwhile, Indiana establishes (Pascal) Siakam on post-ups and isolations and they shoot 13-for-18 (72 percent) in the second quarter. The Knicks started singling up on Siakam (Josh Hart defending him). But as Siakam scored more, the Knicks helped more, and (Myles) Turner (9 points) and others cut and dove for easy baskets. Now the floodgates open and the Pacers dominate in the paint. They scored 11 two-point shots in both the first and second quarters. Their starters have major plusses in the quarter. They also win the rebounding, 12-8."
OTHER IMPORTANT STATS…
BROWN: “The Pacers shoot 53.8 percent for the game, and get off 91 shot attempts, which is a ton. They only go 9-for-26 (34.6 percent) from three, which means they were 40-for-65 (61.5 percent) from inside the arc, which is a major number. The Indiana bench (rotation players) outscore the Knicks bench (rotation players) 34-23. Once again, the shooting here is very important. The Pacers’ bench is 15-for-24 (62.5 percent), while the Knicks' bench is 7-for-16 (43.7 percent). So while the points are important, the ease of the Indiana bench scoring really hurts; this has played out in four of the six games in the series so far.
“All five Pacers starters shoot 50 percent or better, which is hard to do. They only shot 13 free throws to the Knicks’ 26, but they had the game in hand. They outrebounded the Knicks, 47-35. They have 35 assists on 49 made field goals. (Tyrese) Haliburton and (TJ) McConnell have 13 assists against two turnovers; both are controlling the game on drives to the paint.
“In six games, Brunson is now averaging 35.5 points per game on 44.2 percent shooting. When you take apart the numbers, he is shooting 70-for-148 (47.2 percent) from 2, and just (11-for-35 (31.4 percent) from 3. I firmly believe that (Aaron) Nesmith and the other Pacers covering him don’t feel he is much of a three-point threat, and can lock in on him on drives to the paint. He is getting to the line very well - 40-for-52 (76.9 percent); that’s almost nine attempts a game. Now he is seeing more pressure in pick-and-rolls…"
THE TWO “HARTBEATS"
BROWN: “In the last two roughshod games on the road (4 and 6), (Josh) Hart and (Isaiah) Hartenstein had tough days at the office. Hartenstein turned that all around in Game 5 with amazing offensive rebounding, especially early in the first quarter. Turner got the best of him in Game 6, but most of the damage was done around the paint, different from the threes we saw Turner make in Game 5…
“Which brings us to (Josh) Hart. You know he is tough and is willing to sacrifice his body and energy for the team. But this could be a core injury, and those are hard to play with. Rick Carlisle is focused on that matchup. And Siakam is getting more comfortable on scoring chances when defended by Hart in the post and on elbow isolations. If Hart has a core injury, shooting threes would be a difficult issue- and that could play into strategy concepts…"
TURNING TO GAME 7…
BROWN: “The Pacers played well enough to win in Games 1 and 2 at the Garden and then they got smoked in Game 5. Haliburton did not show up in Games 1 and 5. He was the weak link in Game 1 when many Pacers players had a good night. They melted down in the second quarter of Game 5; the Pacers had nine turnovers in the first half that night and 18 for the game. The building obviously rattled Indiana in the second quarter. In their nine-man rotation, the Pacers have three veterans and six young guys. Can they play through the mass hysteria of MSG during a Game 7?
“As for the Knicks, Hart’s condition is first and foremost. Could (OG) Anunoby appear from out of nowhere to help guard Siakam? How will Brunson handle the pick-and-roll pressure? And will the Knicks just run his main sets from the start of the game? In Game 6, (Donte) DiVincenzo and McBride got cooking on five-man motion sets in the first half, but Brunson did not get on track. Will Hartenstein get back to his zealous energetic self? Can (Alec) Burks knock down some shots coming off of a rough effort? Are you making all the needed hustle plays?
“If it comes down to a close game, who gets the best shots? In the Sixers series, Brunson got the best looks compared to (Joel) Embiid and (Tyrese) Maxey, and he made a ton of them. How hard does Indiana have to work to play through Siakam? - The pace of the game isn’t really there in the waning minutes. Will Carlisle try to take the ball out of Brunson’s hands?
"When it comes to clutch shooting in the playoffs, the Pacers have Turner at 60 percent, Siakam at 38 percent and Haliburton at just 20 percent. Brunson is at 41 percent for the playoffs, DiVincenzo is excellent at 67 percent. The two players who might get 'left' open for the Knicks are Hart (shooting 30 percent but made the big one vs Sixers) and McBride (25 percent)…
“If those two guys are abandoned by the Pacers on defense, with the help probably committed to Brunson, they must shoot the ball if they are wide open. That is the NBA - in the biggest moments - you have to penalize the defense for trying to play five on four."
