'Bubble may be far from bursting': Capital Economics says S&P 500 could hit 6,500 by end of next year (2024)

FAQs

Can the S&P 500 hit 6500? ›

Capital Economics chief market economist John Higgins predicts the S&P 500 can hit 6,500 by the end of 2025. This outlook is more dependent on the current AI-fueled bubble growing. For now, he maintains the bubble-like trade in the market can bring the benchmark average to 6,500 by the end of 2025.

According to Luxembourg-based ISABELNET, a firm that has been doing private research on the U.S. stock market since 1998, consensus analyst estimates for the S&P 500 are $242 for 2024 earnings and $278 for 2025.

Some Wall Street strategists have lifted their stock forecasts recently. Stocks have enjoyed quite a nice ascent in 2024, with the S&P 500 climbing 11.5% this year to 5,321. That tops the average full-year gain of 10.3% going back to 1983, according to Moneychimp.

The S&P 500 generated an impressive 26.29% total return in 2023, rebounding from an 18.11% setback in 2022. Heading into 2024, investors are optimistic the same macroeconomic tailwinds that fueled the stock market's 2023 rally will propel the S&P 500 to new all-time highs in 2024.

In our call of the day, a Goldman Sachs team led by its chief U.S. equity strategist, David Kostin, makes the case for the S&P 500 to hit 6,000 by the end of 2024, thanks to a relentless rise in big technology companies. The bank has twice lifted its year-end index call - its baseline forecast is 5,200.

If the S&P 500 does compound 9.2% annually over the next 10 years, it will reach 10,000 by 2033, Colas wrote Friday. Of course, that's a high bar, as Colas notes.

The S&P 500 has hit 20 intraday highs in 2024. As stocks climb higher many stock valuations may be stretched beyond their intrinsic value. But it's still possible to find great investment opportunities as the stock market hits new all-time highs.

While there could be a growth slowdown in the first half of 2024, experts believe growth should resume in the second half of the year. Americans faced many financial challenges this year, from persistent inflation to increasingly expensive debt.

Analysts expect S&P 500 profits to jump 8% in 2024 and 14% in 2025 after subdued growth last year. Robust global economic growth may offer equities enough support to resume a record-breaking rally, even if bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year are completely abandoned.

How much does the S&P 500 grow in 5 years? ›

S&P 500 5 Year Return is at 70.94%, compared to 85.38% last month and 57.45% last year. This is higher than the long term average of 45.28%. The S&P 500 5 Year Return is the investment return received for a 5 year period, excluding dividends, when holding the S&P 500 index.

The estimates from strategists put the median target for the S&P 500 at 5,200 by the end of 2024, implying a decline of less than 1% from Friday's level, according to MarketWatch calculations. Heading into 2024, the median target was around 5,000 (see table below).

The actual rate of return is largely dependent on the types of investments you select. The Standard & Poor's 500® (S&P 500®) for the 10 years ending December 31^st 2023, had an annual compounded rate of return of 15.2%, including reinvestment of dividends.

The average yearly return of the S&P 500 is 10.47% over the last 30 years, as of the end of April 2024. This assumes dividends are reinvested. Adjusted for inflation, the 30-year average stock market return (including dividends) is 7.74%.

Over the past decade, you would have done even better, as the S&P 500 posted an average annual return of a whopping 12.68%. Here's how much your account balance would be now if you were invested over the past 10 years: $1,000 would grow to $3,300. $5,000 would grow to $16,498.