Cumberland County's population took a dip. Why are people moving away? (2024)

Despite a high number of births, the Census said Cumberland County lost population because so many people moved away between 2021 and 2022.

Recently released U.S. census data says so many people moved away from Cumberland County between July 2021 and July 2022 that the population went down slightly.

The population dipped even though Cumberland County has a strong birth rate. Unlike most of North Carolina’s 100 counties, there were more births than deaths here, the data says.

Meanwhile, Cumberland County had the third-youngest population in North Carolina. Half of its people were under age 33. The relative youth of our community may be a variable in the strong birth rate.

Points in the data:

• Cumberland County’s population was 336,699 as of July 1, 2022, down 550 from a year prior. That’s a 0.16% decline.
• There were 5,342 births and 3,259 deaths in that time, for a net change of 2,803 people via what demographers call “natural growth.”
• 2,605 more people moved away than moved here.

Did COVID-19 pandemic lead people to move away?

One year of data is not enough to indicate a trend, said county Planning and Inspections Director Rawls Howard. “We’re kind of growing at a very steady rate” in the long term, he said.

From the April 2010 census to July 2022, Cumberland County’s population was up by 17,268 — from 319,431 to 336,699 — census data says. That’s an increase of 5.41%.

As to what caused the 2021 to 2022 dip? He said there is a “mixing pot” of possible causes.

“You had COVID. You had a shift of trends of people, not only in Cumberland County but all over the country who had options of where they could choose to go work,” Howard said.

This created new norms for the work environment, he said. “Remote work became a much more of a bigger option.”

Regardless of the COVID-19 situation, people typically move away for work reasons, he said.

How much does the military influence population growth and decline?

The transient nature of the military assignments to and from Fort Liberty (which has more than 50,000 uniformed personnel and 20,000 civilian workers, plus their family members) also creates fluctuations in the local population, Howard said.

Fort Liberty could be a factor both in the number of people who leave the area and in the number of births, Nathan Dollar, the director of Carolina Demography at the Carolina Population Center at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, said in an email.

“Because of Fort Liberty, it is likely that Cumberland County has a larger population of people who have no familial ties to Cumberland County and are thus more likely to move out,” he said.

Meanwhile, the median age is 33, Dollar said — the third-youngest in the state. “That said, Cumberland County has a large population of young people who are at prime child-bearing age, which results in more births,” he said.

“This churning of the population certainly creates challenges for community stability and local planners, but the large young population also provides opportunities for growth and community building that can counterbalance that churning,” Dollar said. “It is certainly notable that Cumberland County is one of only 20 NC Counties that had more births than deaths.”

“People are coming to the city” — Residential development grows in Fayetteville

Despite Census figures, housing construction and occupancy is strong

Robert Van Geons, president and CEO of the Fayetteville Cumberland Economic Development Corporation, has seen other statistics that point to growth.

There has been a 7.1% increase in households since 2021, Van Geons said. “We’ve added more than 1,300 households there, and are growing at a healthy, healthy clip in the short term here over the last few years."

Even with a large amount of home and apartment construction, the inventory of unsold homes and vacant apartments has not been rising, he said.

Van Geons suspected the new census data reflects “a statistical fluke.”

Other bits of data from the new census figures:

• The statewide population grew by 1.26%, or 133,000 people, to 10.7 million. Most of the increase came from people moving to North Carolina, Lisa Carlson of Carolina Demography reported.
• While Cumberland County decreased in population, 74 other counties grew, Carlson said.
• The fastest growing counties were Brunswick County (5.7%), Currituck County, (4.4%), Pender County (4.2%), Franklin County (3.8%), and Lincoln County (3.6%), Carlson said.
• The youngest population counties are Onslow County (with Cape Lejeune, and half the population younger than 28), Watauga County (home of Appalachian State University, 29), and Hoke and Cumberland counties (33), reported North Carolina Demographer Michael Cline of the Office of State Budget and Management. The state’s median age is 39, the Census says.

Senior North Carolina reporter Paul Woolverton can be reached at 910-261-4710 and pwoolverton@gannett.com.