If China Stops Buying our Debt, Will Calamity Follow? | Brookings (2024)

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The deep recession and current fiscal policy have produced a large deficit and no sign the flow of red ink will cease any time soon. This makes the U.S. government a major borrower in world financial markets. There is speculation that China, which has acquired a huge amount of U.S. Treasury debt, may soon begin unloading it. Would this pose an important threat to our recovery?

Between December 2008 and December 2009 the amount of U.S. Treasury debt held by the public, including investors in other countries, increased about $1.44 trillion. According to the Treasury Department, a little less than 2% of the additional debt was purchased by government and private buyers in mainland China. Even if we add in the purchases of Hong Kong investors, China’s net purchases of Treasury debt amounted to only a bit more than 7% of new debt issued by the U.S. government. The most important net purchasers of Treasury debt were Americans (63% of the total), the United Kingdom and its residents (12%), and Japan and its residents (10%). Thus, China does not appear to have been a crucial buyer of Treasury securities for the past year or so.

Of course, China could sell off some of its enormous reserves of U.S. Treasury securities. It currently owns almost 10% of the total Treasury debt held by the public. This is slightly less than the percentage held by Japan and residents of Japan, but substantially more than the percentage held by any other country. I’m inclined to think a Chinese sell-off of U.S. Treasuries would on balance benefit the United States. One reason China has accumulated such large reserves is that it has sought to maintain a low value of its own currency, primarily to help maintain a competitive edge in export markets. This policy has helped make China one of the world’s great exporters, but it has also hurt workers and producers in the United States and other countries. If the dollar fell in value compared with other currencies I think we would see a faster U.S. recovery, especially in manufacturing. A precipitous and disorderly fall in the dollar could take a terrible toll on worldwide confidence and hence on the economic recovery, but an orderly decline would spark revival in a number of U.S. industries.

An important barrier to a dollar decline is China’s policy of maintaining a low value of its own currency. A sizeable sell-off of Treasury securities by China would almost certainly lead to an appreciation of China’s currency and depreciation of the dollar. This is more likely to help the United States than to hurt us, contrary to the claims of many observers. To be sure, the U.S. government would have to pay somewhat higher interest on its debt, but it seems likely the gains to the U.S. from faster net export growth would greatly outweigh the losses from higher public borrowing costs.

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If China Stops Buying our Debt, Will Calamity Follow? | Brookings (2024)

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If China Stops Buying our Debt, Will Calamity Follow? | Brookings? ›

A sizeable sell-off of Treasury securities by China would almost certainly lead to an appreciation of China's currency and depreciation of the dollar. This is more likely to help the United States than to hurt us, contrary to the claims of many observers.

What would happen if China stopped buying U.S. debt? ›

If China (or any other nation that has a trade surplus with the U.S.) stops buying U.S. Treasuries or even starts dumping its U.S. forex reserves, its trade surplus would become a trade deficit—something which no export-oriented economy would want, as they would be worse off as a result.

What would happen if China called in our debt? ›

If China called in all of its U.S. holdings, the U.S. dollar would depreciate, whereas the yuan would appreciate, making Chinese goods more expensive.

Who owns most of China's debt? ›

[2] A report by the credit rating agency S&P Global in 2022 estimated that 79 per cent of corporate debt in China was owed by SOEs (the IMF does not break down the proportion of debt owed by SOEs).

Why is China dumping US treasuries? ›

Selling Treasurys is a fast way to whip up U.S. dollars, and China will sometimes use extra dollars to go out on the global market and buy up their own currency. That artificially pumps up its value. It's like planting someone at an auction to drive up your prices.

Is China's debt worse than the US? ›

China's debt overhang far exceeds the burdens facing the United States. As recently as 2020, total debt in the United States relative to GDP exceeded China's. But as of mid-2022, China's relative debt burden stood 40 percent higher than America's.

What if America stopped buying from China? ›

The costs to the U.S. economy if we were to prohibit domestic companies (impacting companies such as GE, Honeywell, Collins, and Parker Aerospace) from engaging with COMAC would be significant: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce estimates that losing access to China's aviation market would translate into a loss of $38 ...

How much land does China own in the US? ›

China owns 384,000 acres of American agricultural land. That's a 30% increase just since 2019. And on top of that, they own land near an air force base in North Dakota.

How much does China owe the USA? ›

The United States pays interest on approximately $850 billion in debt held by the People's Republic of China. China, however, is currently in default on its sovereign debt held by American bondholders.

Who owes the US the most money? ›

Among other countries, Japan and China have continued to be the top owners of US debt during the last two decades. Since the dollar is a strong currency that is accepted globally, holding a substantial amount of US debt can be beneficial.

Does China own Bank of America? ›

Is Bank of America Partly Owned by China? No, Bank of America is not partly owned by China. It is an American bank.

What country owns most of the United States? ›

Which countries own the most land in the U.S.?
  • CANADA. 31%
  • Other. 28%
  • NETHERLANDS. 12%
  • ITALY. 7%
  • UNITED KINGDOM. 6%
  • GERMANY. 6%
  • PORTUGAL. 3.6%
  • FRANCE. 3.2%
Mar 29, 2024

Who has the most debt on earth? ›

United States. The United States boasts both the world's biggest national debt in terms of dollar amount and its largest economy, which resolves to a debt-to GDP ratio of approximately 128.13%.

What would happen if China called in all U.S. debt? ›

The biggest effect of a broad scale dump of US Treasuries by China would be that China would actually export fewer goods to the United States. Overall, foreign countries each make up a relatively small proportion of U.S. debt-holders.

Does Russia hold any U.S. debt? ›

According to the question, the answer is No. Following the Russia's debts despite the fact that they increased upto $326.6billions, these debts don't bear any from USA. Interestingly, in the recent Ukraine war. USA sidelined with Ukraine by extend financial,emotional and military support.

How much US debt is owed to China? ›

In total, other territories hold about $7.4 trillion in U.S. debt. Japan owns the most at $1.1 trillion, followed by China, with $859 billion, and the United Kingdom at $668 billion.

Who owns over 70% of the US debt? ›

Of the $33T of debt, roughly 78% is owned by the public (70% US vs 30% International). The major US public owners include the FED ($6T, but they are no longer buyers), mutual funds, banks, states, pension funds and insurance companies.

Who is the largest holder of the US debt? ›

The largest holder of U.S. debt is the U.S government. Which agencies own the most Treasury notes, bills, and bonds? Social Security, by a long shot. The U.S. Treasury publishes this information in its monthly Treasury statement.

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