Investor Pulse: Optimism for 2024 (2024)

FAQs

Investor Pulse: Optimism for 2024? ›

Investor optimism remains high for market and economic growth potential in 2024. However, concerns about elevated inflation persist, with expectations exceeding the Federal Reserve's target. The Fear and Doubt Index indicates a decline in investor anxiety, signaling a more positive outlook.

Annual returns

So far in 2024 (YTD), the S&P 500 index has returned an average 9.32%.

Recent signals point to an uptick in economic activity and a firming of inflation persistence, leading Vanguard to increase its outlook for 2024 GDP growth, from 0.3% to 0.7%, and its outlook for year-end core inflation, from 2.6% to 2.8%.

Highlights: 5.2% 10-year expected nominal return for U.S. large-cap equities; 9.9% for European equities; 9.1% for emerging-markets equities; 5.0% for U.S. aggregate bonds (as of September 2023). All return assumptions are nominal (non-inflation-adjusted).

Is Investing Basically Gambling? Investing is the act of committing capital to an asset like a stock, with the expectation of generating income or profit. Gambling, on the other hand, is wagering money on an uncertain outcome, that statistically is likely to be negative.

In its latest long-term economic projections released in December, the Federal Open Market Committee projects core PCE inflation of 2.4% and GDP growth of 1.4% in 2024. FOMC members also anticipate just three interest rate cuts by the end of 2024.

The Big Money bulls forecast that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will end 2024 at about 41,231, 9% higher than current levels. Market optimists had a mean forecast of 5461 for the S&P 500 and 17,143 for the Nasdaq Composite —up 9% and 10%, respectively, from where the indexes were trading on May 1.

Economists predict another year of slow growth around the world in 2024. While the risk of a global recession is lower in the year ahead, two G7 economies dipped into recession at the end of 2023.

Will bonds outperform stocks in 2024? ›

Vanguard's active fixed income team believes emerging markets (EM) bonds could outperform much of the rest of the fixed income market in 2024 because of the likelihood of declining global interest rates, the current yield premium over U.S. investment-grade bonds, and a longer duration profile than U.S. high yield.

Analysts expect overall S&P 500 earnings to rise 10.4% in 2024, LSEG data showed. But stocks are also at high valuation levels. The S&P 500 trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio - a commonly used metric to value stocks - of 20.9, well above the index's historic average of 15.7, according to LSEG Datastream.

Falling inflation and weaker economic activity will allow central banks to cut interest rates from around the middle of 2024. After policy rates recede from their cyclical peaks, we expect them to settle at a higher level than we've seen in the past decade, in both Europe and the US.

The Bible doesn't specifically state that we should invest, but also does not forbid it. Investing is mentioned in Proverbs 31:16 and used in Jesus's parables (ex. Parable of the Ten Minas found in Luke 19:11-27), implying that it is expected and normal.

However, institutional investors do tend to have more knowledge, as these are large companies with numerous analysts specialising in a particular market. Still, the stock market is not entirely comparable to a casino. Indeed, with gambling, it is the case that you cannot predict it at all, nor explain it afterwards.

Although there are some who experience gambling as something rewarding and fun, it tends toward being highly addictive and potentially ruinous. The Bible doesn't call gambling a sin as such, although the Bible warns against the love of money and get-rich-quick schemes.

A 7% return isn't pulled from thin air; it's historically been the average return of the S&P 500, adjusted for inflation.

The expected return is the profit or loss that an investor anticipates on an investment that has known historical rates of return (RoR). It is calculated by multiplying potential outcomes by the chances of them occurring and then totaling these results.

As a result, keeping a realistic rate of return in mind can help you aim for a defined target. Many consider a conservative rate of return in retirement 10% or less because of historical returns.