Median Forecasts for 3-Month Treasury Bill Rate Quarterly Trends: Survey of Professional Forecasters (2024)

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Median Forecasts for 3-Month Treasury Bill Rate Quarterly Trends: Survey of Professional Forecasters? ›

Basic Info. Median Forecasts for 3-Month Treasury Bill Rate is at 4.16%, compared to 4.50% last quarter and 5.26% last year. This is higher than the long term average of 3.83%.

3 Month Treasury Bill Rate is at 5.26%, compared to 5.25% the previous market day and 5.21% last year. This is higher than the long term average of 4.19%.

The Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) is a quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts for the economy of the United States issued by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. It is the oldest such survey in the United States.

The Survey of Professional Forecasters is the oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States. The survey began in 1968 and was conducted by the American Statistical Association and the National Bureau of Economic Research.

You can only buy T-bills in electronic form, either from a brokerage firm or directly from the government at TreasuryDirect.gov. (You can also buy Series I savings bonds through TreasuryDirect.gov).

Median Forecasts for 3-Month Treasury Bill Rate is at 4.16%, compared to 4.50% last quarter and 5.26% last year. This is higher than the long term average of 3.83%.

The 3-Month Treasury bill is a short-term U.S. government security with a constant maturity period of 3 months. The Federal Reserve calculates yields for "constant maturities" by interpolating points along a treasury curve comprised of actively traded issues of term (e.g., 1 month) maturities.

The Federal Open Market Committee's March projections for rate cuts, or the so-called dot plot, shows a median federal funds rate of 4.6% in 2024. With the current fed funds rate in a range of 5.25% to 5.50%, the dot plot implies three cuts of a 0.25 percentage point each.

In the long-term, the United States Fed Funds Interest Rate is projected to trend around 4.25 percent in 2025 and 3.25 percent in 2026, according to our econometric models.

The upper boundary of the Federal Reserve's target range for its benchmark interest rate, currently 5.5%, will fall only to 4% by the end of 2025, according to the latest Bloomberg monthly survey. That's a half percentage point higher than respondents expected just a month ago.

Who are the participants in the Survey of Professional Forecasters? ›

The participants to the Survey of Professional Forecasters are experts affiliated with financial or non-financial institutions based within the European Union.

In the case of recession prediction, for example, forecasters estimate the likelihood of a recession within the next 12 months. As of August 2023, a typical estimate of the probability of a US recession within 12 months is about 60%, and it has been above 50% since October 2022.

If you're saving for a goal less than a year away: If you're saving money for a goal with a short-time horizon, T-bills can make more sense than CDs. They provide a higher APY than savings accounts, and they're more liquid than CDs.

Typically, we auction 13-week and 26-week bills on Monday, the 17-week on Wednesday, and 4-week and 8-week bills on Thursday. We auction the 52-week bill every four weeks.

We sell Treasury Bills (Bills) for terms ranging from four weeks to 52 weeks. Bills are sold at a discount or at par (face value). When the bill matures, you are paid its face value. You can hold a bill until it matures or sell it before it matures.

To calculate the price, take 180 days and multiply by 1.5 to get 270. Then, divide by 360 to get 0.75, and subtract 100 minus 0.75. The answer is 99.25. Because you're buying a $1,000 Treasury bill instead of one for $100, multiply 99.25 by 10 to get the final price of $992.50.

91-day T-bill auction avg disc rate

At a discount means the note is sold at a discount from face value and then redeemed at maturity at the full face value. The difference between the discounted price and the face value determines the yield. The yield on 91-day Treasury bills is the average discount rate.