US Debt Sustainability, Serviceability, and Geopolitical Risks (2024)

1 Janet Yellen, Debt Limit Letter to Congress. US Department of Treasury. January 13, 2023.

2 US Congressional Budget Office 10-Year Budget Projections. As of May 2023.

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US Debt Sustainability, Serviceability, and Geopolitical Risks (2024)

FAQs

Is US debt sustainable or not? ›

Despite high domestic and external demand for US debt, relying on this demand amid such significant debt increases is risky. The trajectory of US federal government debt is escalating, with debt held by the public potentially rising from just under 100% today to more than 170% of GDP in 30 years.

Is the United States debt unsustainable? ›

The nation is on an unsustainable fiscal path, driven by the mismatch between the government's commitments and its revenues. Furthermore, the accumulation of federal debt and relatively high interest rates will push the government's borrowing costs increasingly higher — crowding out investments in other priorities.

Is the US on an unsustainable fiscal path? ›

The federal government is on an unsustainable long-term fiscal path that poses serious economic, national security, and social challenges if not addressed. And the longer we wait to act, the more dire the consequences will be on the economy and the public.

What are the conditions for debt sustainability? ›

A country's public debt is considered sustainable if the government is able to meet all its current and future payment obligations without exceptional financial assistance or going into default.

Is the US debt actually a problem? ›

Extraordinarily low interest rates allow the U.S. to shoulder a heavier debt burden, but the debt is on an unsustainable course and its size may limit the government's ability or willingness to continue to fight the economic ill effects of the pandemic or future economic downturns.

Are economists worried about US debt? ›

The government's soaring debt balance poses problems for the US economy. Those include higher inflation, greater market volatility, and a lower quality of life for Americans. Slowing the pace of borrowing is critical for the future, economists told Business Insider.

Why is the US in such bad debt? ›

The national debt enables the federal government to pay for important programs and services even if it does not have funds immediately available, often due to a decrease in revenue. Decreases in federal revenue coupled with increased government spending further increases the deficit.

What are the cons of the US debt? ›

Rising debt reduces business investment and slows economic growth. It also increases expectations of higher rates of inflation and erosion of confidence in the U.S. dollar. The federal government should not allow budget imbalances to harm the economy and families across the country.

When did the US debt get so bad? ›

Between 1980 and 1990, the debt more than tripled. The debt shrank briefly after the end of the Cold War, but by the end of FY 2008, the gross national debt had reached $10.3 trillion, about 10 times its 1980 level.

Why is the US unsustainable? ›

The United States debt started to become unsustainable when the Federal Reserve stopped defending the currency and paying attention to monetary aggregates to implement policies designed to disguise the rising cost of indebtedness from unbridled deficit spending. Artificial currency creation is never neutral.

Is the US budget deficit sustainable? ›

The debt-to-GDP ratio rises continuously in great part because primary deficits lead to higher levels of debt. The continuous rise of the debt-to-GDP ratio indicates that current fiscal policy is unsustainable. These debt-to-GDP projections are lower than both the 2022 and 2021 Financial Report projections.

What debt to GDP ratio is unsustainable? ›

For now, PWBM's approach found that US debt must not surpass 200% of GDP if the worst is to be avoided. Right now, it's at about 98%. But a more plausible red line is closer to 175%, and even that assumes the government will implement fiscal policy corrections, authors Jagadeesh Gokhale and Kent Smetters wrote.

What is the debt sustainability theory? ›

Debt is sustainable when a borrower is expected to be able to continue servicing its debts without an unrealis- tically large correction to its income and expenditure. Sustainability is related to solvency as well as to liquid- ity (Box 2.2).

Does the US debt situation look unsustainable per the IMF? ›

The US's $33 trillion debt pile is reflecting "unsustainable" fiscal policy, the IMF said. The government has already racked up a $1.5 trillion deficit in the first 11 months of 2023. "Under unchanged policies, debt dynamics in the US are very unfavorable," the IMF warned.

What is the debt sustainability framework? ›

What is the debt sustainability framework? The Debt Sustainability Framework (DSF) is designed to guide the borrowing decisions of low-income countries in a way that matches their financing needs with their ability to repay now and in the future.

What is the future of the US debt? ›

Debt held by the public, boosted by the large deficits, reaches its highest level ever in 2029 (measured as a percentage of GDP) and then continues to grow, reaching 166 percent of GDP in 2054 and remaining on track to increase thereafter.

Has the US ever been debt free? ›

By January of 1835, for the first and only time, all of the government's interest-bearing debt was paid off. Congress distributed the surplus to the states (many of which were heavily in debt). The Jackson administration ended with the country almost completely out of debt!

How can the US get out of debt? ›

  1. Bonds. Using Debt to Pay Debt. ...
  2. Interest Rates. Maintaining interest rates at low levels can help stimulate the economy, generate tax revenue, and, ultimately, reduce the national debt. ...
  3. Spending Cuts. From 1921 to 1974, the President led the government budgeting process. ...
  4. Raising Taxes. ...
  5. Bailout or Default.

Is the US in debt to any other country? ›

Nearly half of all US foreign-owned debt comes from five countries. All values are adjusted to 2023 dollars. As of January 2023, the five countries owning the most US debt are Japan ($1.1 trillion), China ($859 billion), the United Kingdom ($668 billion), Belgium ($331 billion), and Luxembourg ($318 billion).

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