Abstract
In this paper, we examine how business cycles affect labor market outcomes in the United States. We conduct a detailed analysis of how cycles affect outcomes differentially across persons of differing age, education, race, and gender, and we compare the cyclical sensitivity during the Great Recession to that in the early 1980s recession. We present raw tabulations and estimate a state panel data model that leverages variation across U.S. states in the timing and severity of business cycles. We find that the impacts of the Great Recession are not uniform acrossdemographic groups and have been felt most strongly for men, black and Hispanic workers, youth, and low-education workers. These dramatic differences in the cyclicality acrossdemographic groups are remarkably stable across three decades of time and throughout recessionary periods and expansionary periods. For the 2007 recession, these differences arelargely explained by differences in exposure to cycles across industry-occupation employment.Citation
Hoynes, Hilary, Douglas L. Miller, and Jessamyn Schaller.2012."Who Suffers during Recessions?"Journal of Economic Perspectives, 26 (3): 27-48. DOI: 10.1257/jep.26.3.27Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- E24Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital
- E32Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- J14Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-labor Market Discrimination
- J15Economics of Minorities, Races, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
- J16Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
