How big is the US bond market vs stock market?
Valued at about $300 trillion, the bond market dwarfs the $124.4 trillion value of the global stock market. The United States accounts for about 40% of the global bond market and about 42% of the global equity market.
Bonds and bank loans form what is known as the credit market. The global credit market in aggregate is about three times the size of the global equity market. Bank loans are not securities under the Securities and Exchange Act, but bonds typically are and are therefore more highly regulated.
In 2022, the global bond market totaled $133 trillion. As one of the world's largest capital markets, debt securities have grown sevenfold over the last 40 years. Fueling this growth are government and corporate debt sales across major economies and emerging markets.
There are many adages to help you determine how to allocate stocks and bonds in your portfolio. One says that the percentage of stocks in your portfolio should equal 100 minus your age. So, if you're 30, such a portfolio would contain 70% stocks and 30% bonds (or other safe investments).
From 1982 through 2019 (pre-COVID), while stocks outperformed, the results were much closer to the first 150 years than the previous 40 – the S&P 500 returned 11.8% per annum versus 9.5% per annum for long-term (20-year) Treasury bonds.
Ranked: the world's top bond markets
Valued at over $51 trillion, the U.S. has the largest bond market globally. Government bonds made up the majority of its debt market, with over $26 trillion in securities outstanding.
Why did the Treasury bond market crash in 2022 and 2023? Interest rates and the price of bonds have an inverse relationship. As interest rates go up, the market value (price) of bonds declines. When the Federal Reserve raises the federal funds rate, it can cause the bond market to crash.
U.S. diversified bond funds - which invest in public and corporate debt - are on track for a third year of negative returns, after losing more than 10% in 2022, Morningstar data shows. European funds have effectively returned nothing this year after two down years.
Bond market size vs stock market size
In fact, the bond market actually has a much higher market capitalisation than that of the stock market.
When market interest rates rise, prices of fixed-rate bonds fall. this phenomenon is known as interest rate risk. A seesaw, such as the one pictured below, can help you visualize the relationship between market interest rates and bond prices.
Does Warren Buffett own bonds?
It seems that Buffett has softened his stance. Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio includes a significant amount of short-term bonds, despite its leader's infamous public position. Speaking to CNBC's Becky Quick on Aug. 3, 2023, Buffett admitted: “Berkshire bought $10 billion in U.S. Treasurys last Monday.
The 90/10 rule in investing is a comment made by Warren Buffett regarding asset allocation. The rule stipulates investing 90% of one's investment capital toward low-cost stock-based index funds and the remainder 10% to short-term government bonds.
This principle recommends investing the result of subtracting your age from 100 in equities, with the remaining portion allocated to debt instruments. For example, a 35-year-old would allocate 65 per cent to equities and 35 per cent to debt based on this rule.
During the first half of a recession stage, core bond returns (i.e., Treasuries and investment-grade securities) are historically positive, while returns for high yield bonds, equities, and commodities are negative.
The short answer is bonds tend to be less volatile than stocks and often perform better during recessions than other financial assets.
Should I only buy bonds when interest rates are high? There are advantages to purchasing bonds after interest rates have risen. Along with generating a larger income stream, such bonds may be subject to less interest rate risk, as there may be a reduced chance of rates moving significantly higher from current levels.
Of the total held by foreign countries, Japan and Mainland China held the greatest portions, with China holding 797.7 billion U.S. dollars in U.S. securities. Other foreign holders included oil exporting countries and Caribbean banking centers.
Which countries hold the most US debt? Over the past 20 years, Japan and China have owned more US Treasurys than any other foreign nation. Between 2000 and 2022, Japan grew from owning $534 billion to just over $1 trillion, while China's ownership grew from $101 billion to $855 billion.
If you're holding the bond to maturity, the fluctuations won't matter—your interest payments and face value won't change. But if you buy and sell bonds, you'll need to keep in mind that the price you'll pay or receive is no longer the face value of the bond.
High-quality bond investments remain attractive. With yields on investment-grade-rated1 bonds still near 15-year highs,2 we believe investors should continue to consider intermediate- and longer-term bonds to lock in those high yields.
Should I invest in bonds or CDs?
After weighing your timeline, tolerance to risk and goals, you'll likely know whether CDs or bonds are right for you. CDs are usually best for investors looking for a safe, shorter-term investment. Bonds are typically longer, higher-risk investments that deliver greater returns and a predictable income.
Vanguard's active fixed income team believes emerging markets (EM) bonds could outperform much of the rest of the fixed income market in 2024 because of the likelihood of declining global interest rates, the current yield premium over U.S. investment-grade bonds, and a longer duration profile than U.S. high yield.
As for fixed income, we expect a strong bounce-back year to play out over the course of 2024. When bond yields are high, the income earned is often enough to offset most price fluctuations. In fact, for the 10-year Treasury to deliver a negative return in 2024, the yield would have to rise to 5.3 percent.
According to research by Edward McQuarrie, a professor emeritus at Santa Clara University, 2022 was the worst year ever for the bond market in the United States since records began.
Do Bonds Lose Money in a Recession? Bonds can perform well in a recession as investors tend to flock to bonds rather than stocks in times of economic downturns. This is because stocks are riskier as they are more volatile when markets are not doing well.
