How big is the US fixed-income?
Trading (as of March) $1,254.4 billion, +11.8% Y/Y. Outstanding (as of 4Q21) $52.9 trillion, +5.5% Y/Y.
Fixed-income markets include not only publicly traded securities, such as commercial paper, notes, and bonds, but also non-publicly traded loans. Although they usually attract less attention than equity markets, fixed-income markets are more than three times the size of global equity markets.
U.S. market and indices
U.S. high-yield bonds outstanding as of the first quarter of 2021 are estimated to be about $1.7 trillion, comprising about 16% of the U.S. corporate bond market, which totals $10.7 trillion. New issuances amounted to $435 billion (~$505 billion in 2023) in 2020.
Valued at over $51 trillion, the U.S. has the largest bond market globally. Government bonds made up the majority of its debt market, with over $26 trillion in securities outstanding. In 2022, the Federal government paid $534 billion in interest on this debt.
Bonds and bank loans form what is known as the credit market. The global credit market in aggregate is about three times the size of the global equity market. Bank loans are not securities under the Securities and Exchange Act, but bonds typically are and are therefore more highly regulated.
In fact, the bond market actually has a much higher market capitalisation than that of the stock market.
Valued at about $300 trillion, the bond market dwarfs the $124.4 trillion value of the global stock market. The United States accounts for about 40% of the global bond market and about 42% of the global equity market.
Fitch Ratings estimates $759 billion, or 14%, of the $5.6 trillion U.S. investment-grade bond market will mature in 2024 and 2025. According to our assessment, $332 billion is due in 2024 and $427 billion is due in 2025 as of YE 2023.
Outstanding (as of 4Q23) $10.8 trillion, +3.0% Y/Y.
The $26 trillion U.S. Treasury market plays a critical role in the global economy. Market participants worldwide depend on it for investing, collateral, and hedging, and as a benchmark for the pricing of other securities.
Who owns the most US bonds?
Which countries hold the most US debt? Over the past 20 years, Japan and China have owned more US Treasurys than any other foreign nation. Between 2000 and 2022, Japan grew from owning $534 billion to just over $1 trillion, while China's ownership grew from $101 billion to $855 billion.
Of the total held by foreign countries, Japan and Mainland China held the greatest portions, with China holding 797.7 billion U.S. dollars in U.S. securities. Other foreign holders included oil exporting countries and Caribbean banking centers.
Total national debt
First, the debt held by the public stands at more than $24.64 trillion. This represents debt securities, like Treasury bonds and notes, bought by banks, insurance companies, state and local governments, foreign governments and private investors.
Traditionally, the banks have been the largest category of investors in G-secs accounting for more than 60% of the transactions in the Wholesale Debt Market.
Equity capital reflects ownership while debt capital reflects an obligation. Typically, the cost of equity exceeds the cost of debt. The risk to shareholders is greater than to lenders since payment on a debt is required by law regardless of a company's profit margins.
Since Debt is almost always cheaper than Equity, Debt is almost always the answer. Debt is cheaper than Equity because interest paid on Debt is tax-deductible, and lenders' expected returns are lower than those of equity investors (shareholders). The risk and potential returns of Debt are both lower.
Some sectors appeal more to institutional investors, such as banks and pension funds. Others, including the municipal bond market, attract more retail investors. The global fixed-income market was worth over $122.6 trillion as of 2Q22.
According to research by Edward McQuarrie, a professor emeritus at Santa Clara University, 2022 was the worst year ever for the bond market in the United States since records began.
Even if the stock market crashes, you aren't likely to see your bond investments take large hits. However, businesses that have been hard hit by the crash may have a difficult time repaying their bonds.
About 58% of U.S. households owned stocks in 2022, according to the Federal Reserve's survey of consumer finances released this fall. That is up from 53% in 2019 and marks the highest household stock-ownership rate recorded in the triennial survey.
Is the bond market the biggest in the world?
In 2022, the global bond market totaled $133 trillion. As one of the world's largest capital markets, debt securities have grown sevenfold over the last 40 years. Fueling this growth are government and corporate debt sales across major economies and emerging markets.
'Fixed income' is a broad asset class that includes government bonds, municipal bonds, corporate bonds, and asset-backed securities such as mortgage-backed bonds. They're called 'fixed income' because these assets provide a return in the form of fixed periodic payments.
According to the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA), the global bond market was worth $126.9 trillion at the end of 2021, compared to the $124.4 trillion global equity market cap.
In any one calendar year, you may buy up to $10,000 in Series EE electronic savings bonds AND up to $10,000 in Series I electronic savings bonds for yourself as owner of the bonds. That is in addition to the amount you can spend on buying savings bonds for a child or as gifts.
The bond market is a wide field, with many different categories of assets. In general, you can expect a return of between 4% and 5% if you invest in this market, but it will range based on what you purchase and how long you hold those assets.
