Where are bonds headed in 2024?
The bond market in 2024 continues to exhibit topsy-turvy dynamics, with yields on short-term bonds exceeding those of longer-term bonds. For example, as of April 10, 2024, 3-month Treasury bills yielded 5.45% and 2-year Treasury yields were 4.97%, compared to the 4.55% yield on the 10-year Treasury.
Expecting another strong year in 2024
Following large front-loaded new issue supply, EM IG spreads are now at attractive levels versus U.S. credit, setting up EM debt for outperformance. Our 2024 macroeconomic base case features slowing inflation and growth cushioned by Fed rate cuts.
Waiting for the Fed to cut rates before considering longer term bonds isn't our preferred approach. The bond market is forward-looking and long-term Treasury yields typically decline once investors believe that rate cuts are coming.
We believe the municipal market is poised for improvement in 2024. The Fed's anticipated easing this year should bolster demand for municipal bonds. If investor sentiment shifts positively, as we expect, strengthening demand could absorb secondary market supply and act as a catalyst for spread tightening.
We are revising up our end-2024 and end-2025 forecasts for the 10-year Treasury yield by 25bp, to 4%. This reflects recent changes to our projections for the federal funds rate.
As for fixed income, we expect a strong bounce-back year to play out over the course of 2024. When bond yields are high, the income earned is often enough to offset most price fluctuations. In fact, for the 10-year Treasury to deliver a negative return in 2024, the yield would have to rise to 5.3 percent.
Credit spreads remain very tight, and the yield you can earn when adjusted for duration favors high-quality intermediate bonds. So, investors are not really being paid to take on credit or interest rate risk.” Others have said that 2024 might be the time to invest toward the longer end of the risk-return spectrum.
Holding bonds vs. trading bonds
However, you can also buy and sell bonds on the secondary market. After bonds are initially issued, their worth will fluctuate like a stock's would. If you're holding the bond to maturity, the fluctuations won't matter—your interest payments and face value won't change.
If bond yields rise, existing bonds lose value. The change in bond values only relates to a bond's price on the open market, meaning if the bond is sold before maturity, the seller will obtain a higher or lower price for the bond compared to its face value, depending on current interest rates.
Key Points. Pros: I bonds come with a high interest rate during inflationary periods, they're low-risk, and they help protect against inflation. Cons: Rates are variable, there's a lockup period and early withdrawal penalty, and there's a limit to how much you can invest.
What is the prediction for government bonds?
The United States 10 Years Government Bond Yield is expected to be 4.49% by the end of September 2024.
Starting yields, potential rate cuts and a return to contrasting performance for stocks and bonds could mean an attractive environment for fixed income in 2024.
Yields on high-quality bonds have risen back to around their historically normal levels. Higher yields enable bonds to once again play their traditional role as sources of reliable, low-risk income for investors who buy and hold them to maturity.
The Board decided to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35 per cent. This decision balances the objectives of monetary policy by supporting the return of inflation to target in a reasonable timeframe with gradual easing in labour market conditions to levels consistent with full employment.
| 2024 Forecast | 2025 Forecast | |
|---|---|---|
| Fannie Mae | 6.6% | 6.2% |
| Mortgage Bankers Association | 6.1%* | 5.6% |
| National Association of Home Builders | 6.61% | 6.01% |
| National Association of Realtors | 6.5% | 6.1% |
It similarly held rates steady after its inaugural 2024 session in January. The federal funds target rate has remained at 5.25% to 5.5% since summer 2023, the highest it's been in over 20 years. The Fed raised the rate 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023 to combat ongoing inflation.
1. Positive returns -- but smaller than in 2023. I think that the overall stock market will deliver positive returns in 2024. However, I expect those returns to be somewhat smaller than they were last year.
After weighing your timeline, tolerance to risk and goals, you'll likely know whether CDs or bonds are right for you. CDs are usually best for investors looking for a safe, shorter-term investment. Bonds are typically longer, higher-risk investments that deliver greater returns and a predictable income.
The Yield Curve Today
The closely watched spread between the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note yield and the 3-Month U.S. Treasury Bill yield turned negative in late October 2022 and has remained inverted for 476 consecutive days (as of February 13, 2024).
In his annual interest rate forecast for 2024, McBride expects that the key rate will fall to 5.75 percent by the end of the year. Utilize Bankrate's mortgage refinance calculator to help you estimate how much money refinancing might save you in the long run — and how long it might take for you to breakeven.
Why do bonds lose value when rates rise?
Key Takeaways
Most bonds pay a fixed interest rate that becomes more attractive if interest rates fall, driving up demand and the price of the bond. Conversely, if interest rates rise, investors will no longer prefer the lower fixed interest rate paid by a bond, resulting in a decline in its price.
The expected decreasing inflationary pressure, plus the added impact of a falling federal funds rate in 2024, is likely to push mortgage rates lower. But while the Fed raised its benchmark rate fast in 2022–2023, it's expected to bring rates down at a much more gradual pace in 2024 and beyond.
Even if the stock market crashes, you aren't likely to see your bond investments take large hits. However, businesses that have been hard hit by the crash may have a difficult time repaying their bonds.
So, if the bond market declines or crashes, your investment account will likely feel it in some way. This can be especially concerning for investors with portfolios heavily weighted toward bonds, such as those in or near retirement.
Buying government bonds is a safe investment and it's highly unlikely that you'll lose money. That said, these low-risk investments aren't known for their high returns and gains can be further diminished by inflation and changing interest rates.
