Why do fixed income prices fall when interest rates rise?
Key Takeaways. Most bonds pay a fixed interest rate that becomes more attractive if interest rates fall, driving up demand and the price of the bond. Conversely, if interest rates rise, investors will no longer prefer the lower fixed interest rate paid by a bond, resulting in a decline in its price.
What causes bond prices to fall? Bond prices move in inverse fashion to interest rates, reflecting an important bond investing consideration known as interest rate risk. If bond yields decline, the value of bonds already on the market move higher. If bond yields rise, existing bonds lose value.
A fundamental principle of bond investing is that market interest rates and bond prices generally move in opposite directions. When market interest rates rise, prices of fixed-rate bonds fall. this phenomenon is known as interest rate risk.
If market participants believe that there is higher inflation on the horizon, interest rates and bond yields will rise (and prices will decrease) to compensate for the loss of the purchasing power of future cash flows. Bonds with the longest cash flows will see their yields rise and prices fall the most.
When rates go up, bond prices typically go down, and when interest rates decline, bond prices typically rise. This is a fundamental principle of bond investing, which leaves investors exposed to interest rate risk—the risk that an investment's value will fluctuate due to changes in interest rates.
If interest rates go up, your bond fund will decrease in value. However, the higher interest rates will provide higher dividends. Eventually, the higher dividends make up for the initial loss of value. The length of time this takes is the duration of the fund.
Waiting for the Fed to cut rates before considering longer term bonds isn't our preferred approach. The bond market is forward-looking and long-term Treasury yields typically decline once investors believe that rate cuts are coming.
In current market circ*mstances, with higher bond yields, fixed income investments have become an attractive asset class again from a risk-return perspective. Apart from the attractive yield, bonds also offer resilience for adverse market developments in risk assets like equities.
Fixed-income investments don't have the highest potential for return, but their lower risk is an advantage. For money you'll need within a few years, the best fixed-income investments can help you build your cash reserves while keeping it relatively safe.
The value of existing fixed-income securities with different maturity dates declines by varying degrees when market interest rates rise. This phenomenon is referred to as “price sensitivity” and is measured by the bond's duration.
Should I buy bonds when interest rates are rising?
When interest rates rise, bond prices go down in value. Most bonds pay a fixed coupon (i.e. interest payment) and if rates go up, the only way a fixed coupon can equate to a higher interest rate is if the investor pays less for the bond.
| Face Value | Purchase Amount | 30-Year Value (Purchased May 1990) |
|---|---|---|
| $50 Bond | $100 | $207.36 |
| $100 Bond | $200 | $414.72 |
| $500 Bond | $400 | $1,036.80 |
| $1,000 Bond | $800 | $2,073.60 |
Unless you are set on holding your bonds until maturity despite the upcoming availability of more lucrative options, a looming interest rate hike should be a clear sell signal.
Holding bonds vs. trading bonds
However, you can also buy and sell bonds on the secondary market. After bonds are initially issued, their worth will fluctuate like a stock's would. If you're holding the bond to maturity, the fluctuations won't matter—your interest payments and face value won't change.
Regular Income
Fixed income securities pay a fixed or predictable rate of return to investors (assuming the issuer does not default), typically in the form of interest payments. This can be a valuable source of income for investors who are looking for stable returns.
In line with the outlook from other investment providers, the firm is forecasting a 5.7% gain in 2024 for U.S. investment-grade bonds, versus 4.9% last year and 2.3% in 2022. (All figures are nominal.)
As for fixed income, we expect a strong bounce-back year to play out over the course of 2024. When bond yields are high, the income earned is often enough to offset most price fluctuations. In fact, for the 10-year Treasury to deliver a negative return in 2024, the yield would have to rise to 5.3 percent.
Such long-dated U.S. notes lost 39.2% in 2022, as measured by an index tracking long-term zero-coupon bonds. That's a record low dating to 1754, McQuarrie said. You'd have to go all the way back to the Napoleonic War era for the second-worst showing, when long bonds lost 19% in 1803.
Even if the stock market crashes, you aren't likely to see your bond investments take large hits. However, businesses that have been hard hit by the crash may have a difficult time repaying their bonds.
Key Points. Pros: I bonds come with a high interest rate during inflationary periods, they're low-risk, and they help protect against inflation. Cons: Rates are variable, there's a lockup period and early withdrawal penalty, and there's a limit to how much you can invest.
Are bonds safer than stocks right now?
Bond risks
U.S. Treasury bonds are generally more stable than stocks in the short term, but this lower risk typically translates to lower returns, as noted above. Treasury securities, such as government bonds, notes and bills, are virtually risk-free, as the U.S. government backs these instruments.
Key Takeaways
Bond rates are lower over time than the general return of the stock market. Individual stocks may outperform bonds by a significant margin, but they are also at a much higher risk of loss. Bonds will always be less volatile on average than stocks because more is known and certain about their income flow.
Although it seems that fixed income investments are risk-free and 100% safe, nothing is further from the truth. Fixed income investments run credit risk, market risk, movement penalties, hidden fees, transparency in results, among many others.
Investments that can be appropriate include bank CDs or short-term bond funds. If your investing timeline is longer, and you're willing to take more risk in order to potentially earn higher yields, you might consider longer-term Treasury bonds or investment-grade corporate or municipal bonds.
Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.
