Why is China dumping US Treasury bonds?
The need for money to support China's ongoing economic imperatives and the parallel need for Beijing to remake the country's economic model now render pointless Beijing's huge holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds. The selling will no doubt continue.
Worries over security and a further delay to expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have depleted Beijing's appetite for US Treasury bills, and its position as the second-largest foreign holder of the financial instruments could be taken by the UK in coming months, analysts warned.
More importantly, China's footprint in the U.S. bond market is a fraction of what it once was. China owns less than 3% of all outstanding Treasuries, the smallest share in 22 years, and again substantially down from the record 14% in 2011. Granted, China also likely holds Treasuries via other countries like Belgium.
China's reserves has shifted its dollar reserves from Treasuries to Agencies, and made increased use of offshore custodians. The available evidence suggests that it still holds about 50 percent of its reserves in dollar bonds.
"With the Fed raising rates and the dollar going up, yield-insensitive central banks have been selling Treasuries to limit the weakening of their domestic currencies, and yield-sensitive foreign private investors have been buying Treasuries to benefit from higher yields and a rising dollar," Slok noted last month.
If China (or any other nation that has a trade surplus with the U.S.) stops buying U.S. Treasuries or even starts dumping its U.S. forex reserves, its trade surplus would become a trade deficit—something which no export-oriented economy would want, as they would be worse off as a result.
It's going to put it into bonds of other countries. It will have to buy other currencies in order to invest in those countries' bonds. So US interest rates will no doubt rise as the supply of US Treasury bonds suddenly increases and the dollar will fall as China moves a lot of money out of dollars.
Top Foreign Holders of U.S. Debt
With $1.1 trillion in Treasury holdings, Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt.
Though China owns a large amount of U.S. debt, it isn't the United States's largest creditor. The greatest amount of U.S. debt is owned by the U.S. government, while the largest foreign creditor is Japan. China owns around 2.6% of U.S. debt, which it buys because the Chinese yuan is pegged to the dollar.
According to a 2021 report by the Department of Agriculture, China owns 384,000 acres of American agricultural land; ownership which jumped by 30% from 2019 to 2020.
Is China dumping US Treasury bills?
Beijing, vigilant in the protection of its overseas assets, has slashed its holdings of US Treasury bills by 25 per cent since early 2021 to the tune of USD 280 billion.
China sells the most US assets in 4 years, dumping $21 billion of US stock and Treasury bonds. Chinese investors sold $21.2 billion in US equities and Treasuries, the US Treasury said Wednesday.
Debt as a share of GDP has risen to about the same level as in the United States, while in dollar terms China's total debt ($47.5 trillion) is still markedly below that of the United States (close to $70 trillion). As for non-financial corporate debt, China's 28 percent share is the largest in the world.
In total, other territories hold about $7.4 trillion in U.S. debt. Japan owns the most at $1.1 trillion, followed by China, with $859 billion, and the United Kingdom at $668 billion. In isolation, this $7.4 trillion amount is a lot, said Scott Morris, a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development.
Holders of U.S. Debt
Furthermore, China needs to maintain significant reserves of U.S. debt to manage the exchange rate of the renminbi. Were China to suddenly unload its reserve holdings, its currency's exchange rate would rise, making Chinese exports more expensive in foreign markets.
So, the risks to investing in T-bonds are opportunity risks. That is, the investor might have gotten a better return elsewhere, and only time will tell. The dangers lie in three areas: inflation, interest rate risk, and opportunity costs.
[2] A report by the credit rating agency S&P Global in 2022 estimated that 79 per cent of corporate debt in China was owed by SOEs (the IMF does not break down the proportion of debt owed by SOEs).
The value of U.S. Treasury securities held by residents of Russia amounted to 33 million U.S. dollars in June 2023, the lowest over the period under consideration. Furthermore, in March 2020, the figure decreased sharply to 3.85 billion U.S. dollars, down from 12.6 billion U.S. dollars one month prior.
1) Switzerland
Switzerland is a country that, in practically all economic and social metrics, is an example to follow. With a population of almost 9 million people, Switzerland has no natural resources of its own, no access to the sea, and virtually no public debt.
Entities with extra cash buy treasury bonds. When no one buys them anymore, we will reduce the national debt.
How much money does the world owe China?
The researchers also cited data reported by lenders to the Switzerland-headquartered Bank of International Settlements, which they said indicates developing country borrowers owe Chinese lenders at least $1.1 trillion and up to $1.5 trillion as of 2021.
China's debt-to-GDP ratio climbed to a new record high in 2023 despite the slow pace of borrowing, reflecting the economy's weakening growth, a new report from a state-backed think tank shows.
The increased buying of Treasuries continued a trend of the last few months, after yields dropped as the market priced in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The three largest holders of Treasuries -- Japan, China and the UK -- led the purchase U.S. government debt.
Why does China own so much of America's federal debt? America has a current account deficit, mainly due to a trade deficit with China. This means that the American demand for yuan is increasing at a faster rate than the Chinese demand for dollars.
France is another nation that borrows money from the US. As of January, France owes $183.9 billion to the US. This makes it another top nation that owes the US money.
