The Philippines is maintaining a muted stance on the recent clash between its navy and the Chinese coastguard in the South China Sea, observers say, with President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr seen to be playing down the incident to avoid touching on responses or “red lines” that might escalate tensions further.
Manila also said the confrontation last week at the Second Thomas Shoal was not an armed attack but a misunderstanding that could be resolved through talks, with Marcos Jnr on Sunday telling troops they were “not in the business to instigate wars” nearly a week after the incident.
The saga centres on Chinese coastguard personnel on June 17 boarding a Philippine vessel that was resupplying a military outpost in the disputed waters, with Manila accusing Beijing of intentionally ramming its ship and causing injuries to Filipino sailors, including one who lost his thumb.
Manila and Beijing have been locked in a months-long territorial row in the South China Sea. China’s coastguard also reportedly seized two lifeboats from the Philippine vessel.
Philippine forces were on a resupply mission to the BRP Sierra Madre, a World War II-era vessel grounded on Second Thomas Shoal that operates as a remote base for the country’s troops. The flashpoint is known to Manila as the Ayungin Shoal, while Beijing calls it Renai Jiao. Both sides claim sovereignty over the feature.
At the Western Mindanao Command on the island of Palawan, Marcos Jnr in a surprise visit on Sunday told troops to continue fulfilling their duty with integrity and respect, noting: “We refuse to play by the rules that force us to choose sides in a great power competition.
“And that is why, in defending the nation, we stay true to our Filipino nature that we would like to settle all these issues peacefully,” he said. “But at the same time, we stand firm. Our calm and peaceful disposition should not be mistaken for acquiescence.”
Two days before the president’s announcement, Executive Secretary Lucas Bersamin stated the National Maritime Council had convened over the clash, but did not discuss whether Manila would invoke the Mutual Defence Treaty with the United States – an agreement obliging both sides to assist the other in the event of external aggression.
Bersamin said they had not considered elevating the matter to a higher international body, adding the council did not classify the incident as an armed attack and had proposed policy recommendations to the president.
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Chinese and Philippine ships clash in first incident under Beijing’s new coast guard law
Chinese and Philippine ships clash in first incident under Beijing’s new coast guard law
Manila at a crossroads
Manila is now at a crossroads, according to Matteo Piasentini, a security analyst from the China and Indo-Pacific desk at Geopolitica, an Italian think tank. He told This Week in Asia that Marcos Jnr’s declarations at the Shangri-la Dialogue security forum in Singapore earlier this month, where he mentioned “red lines” in the South China Sea, might have led to the confrontation.
“I see the time it took the president to respond as an attempt to tone down the narrative and avoid talking about responses and ‘red lines’ that would benefit no one at this juncture, while reinstating his stance,” Piasentini said.
The Philippine government can anticipate incidents of similar severity, according to Piasentini, as China is expected to persist with its “grey-zone tactics”.
The timeline for Marcos Jnr’s response underscored the complexity of the issue, said political analyst Edmund Tayao, president and CEO of the Political Economic Elemental Researchers and Strategists think tank.
“Any president … should take careful note that as much possible, peaceful means should be exhausted … War should always be avoided,” Tayao told This Week in Asia, echoing the sentiment that Beijing would continue with its tactics as “they’re always able to get away with it”.
The Philippines, China, Malaysia, Brunei and Vietnam have competing claims in the South China Sea.
In 2016, a tribunal in The Hague ruled that Beijing’s “nine-dash-line” claims over the disputed waterway had no legal basis, and recognised Manila’s sovereign rights. China has refused to accept this verdict.
The latest clash signalled China’s strategy to fortify its presence in the disputed waters, but Marcos Jnr’s response did not indicate a defeatist stance, according to security analyst Chester Cabalza, president of the Manila-based International Development and Security Cooperation think tank.
“The play of words on the recent naval confrontation as a form of a misunderstanding is the tune of diplomatic acquiescence that needs to be said in public to pacify fears,” he said.
“I firmly believe that the government’s message has a profound meaning of accountability. They will find a way to resolve it through bilateral talks with China. Diplomacy is the first line of defence.”
