Why the U.S. may extend its run as the world's leading economy (2024)

The U.S., China and India may take turns leading the global economy this century, according to an analysis from the Centre for Economics and Business Research.

The CEBR forecast suggests China could potentially take the top spot as the world's largest economy by gross domestic product as early as 2037.The forecast also sees potentially strong growth in other countries such as India.

"The ranking of which is the largest economy in the world — that doesn't take into account things like living standards. On that measure, China is absolutely nowhere near catching up with the U.S.," said Nina Skero, chief executive of the CEBR.

Economists believe that a large and fast-growing GDP can signal a nation's military power, economic influence and international significance.

"It would be naive to say it doesn't matter," said Mariana Mazzucato, a professor of economics at the University College London. "But unless we solve the biggest problems of our time around health, climate, digital and also AI with a global lens, then we're not going to be better off."

Around the world, policymakers are spending large sums of public funds to prepare for social and environmental challenges that may be ahead.

"I don't want to contain China. I just want to make sure that we have a relationship with China that's on the up and up," said President Joe Biden at a September 2023 press conference.

Leaders from India and China have strengthened their diplomatic ties with the U.S. in 2023. President Xi Jinping of China in particular sought to repair relations with Washington after a tumultuous start to the decade.

Business confidence in China is weakening, prompting the government to continue increasing its stimulus spending. China was previously expected to overtake the U.S. economy by 2028, according to the CEBR.

"The main issue facing China today is that the population, the private sector, the investors don't have long-term confidence about the Chinese economy," said Yasheng Huang, professor of global economics and management at the MIT Sloan School of Management.

Population growth has stalled in China and in the U.S. in the 21st century, but India in particular may benefit from a so-called "demographic dividend" where the working-age population is growing in a well-capitalized business environment.

"The demographics [in India] are still very youthful compared to other large Asian economies such as Japan, South Korea or China," said Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific chief economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. "That gives India the potential to be growing at quite a rapid pace," he told CNBC in an interview.

Watch the video above to learn more about the race to be the world's largest economy.

Why the U.S. may extend its run as the world's leading economy (2024)

FAQs

Why does America have the world's largest economy? ›

The American economy is fueled by high productivity, well developed transportation infrastructure, and extensive natural resources. Americans have the highest average household and employee income among OECD member states. In 2021, they had the highest median household income.

Why the US economy is the most important in the world? ›

America is the world's largest national economy and leading global trader. The process of opening world markets and expanding trade, initiated in the United States in 1934 and consistently pursued since the end of the Second World War, has played an important role in the development of American prosperity.

What explains why the United States has such a high level of economic development? ›

Economic powerhouse:

Other key economic strengths include a flexible labor market, relatively solid demographics compared to other rich nations, and the use of the dollar—the world's reserve currency.

Does the United States have the strongest economy in the world? ›

The United States of America

The United States upholds its status as the major global economy and richest country, steadfastly preserving its pinnacle position from 1960 to 2023.

Why is the US economy still strong? ›

That's because consumer spending, which accounts for the biggest part of US GDP, has been relentless, even in the face of the highest interest rates in 23 years. But what's perhaps most remarkable about the US economic growth rate is how much it towers over similarly sized advanced economies.

Why are the USA so successful? ›

Demographically, America is the only nation that is simultaneously big, young, and highly educated. The U.S. workforce is the third largest, second youngest, most educated in years of schooling, and most productive among the major powers—and it is the only major workforce that will grow throughout this century.

Why is the US the most important country? ›

The United States of America is a North American nation that is the world's most dominant economic and military power. Likewise, its cultural imprint spans the world, led in large part by its popular culture expressed in music, movies and television.

How does US impact the world economy? ›

It accounts for more than 25 percent of global GDP (at 2015 market exchange rates), 11 percent of global trade, 12 percent of bank foreign claims, and 35 percent of global stock market capitalization (Figures 1 and 2).

What are the advantages of the US economy? ›

The U.S. economy is marked by resilience, flexibility, and innovation. In the first decade of the 21st century, the economy was able to withstand a number of costly setbacks.

What was the economic reason for the US expansion? ›

Many industrialists saw new colonies as a potential source of cheap raw materials. Agriculture had also expanded. Farmers pointed out that colonies would mean new markets for their products. economic interests went hand-in-hand with military interests.

What country has the best economy? ›

The United States is the undisputed heavyweight when it comes to the economies of the world. America's gross domestic product in 2022 was more than 40% greater than that of China, the world No. 2. Even more striking, U.S. GDP was over five times that of the next two largest economies, Japan and Germany.

How did the US become so powerful? ›

The U.S. became a world power in 1898 when it seized control of the Spanish Empire. This allowed the U.S. to project its power across the planet.

Which US city has the strongest economy? ›

As of 2024, the New York metropolitan area is the world's principal fintech and financial center and the largest metropolitan economy in the world, with a nominal gross metropolitan product of over US$2.5 trillion.

Which country is the strongest in the world? ›

1. The United States. The world's biggest power i.e. 'The United States' has the most powerful army in the world.

What is the richest country in the world in 2024? ›

Top 10 Richest Countries in the world by GDP per Capita in 2024
  • Luxembourg. Continent -Europe. GDP-PPP per capita in USD 143,740. ...
  • Macao SAR. Continent -Asia. ...
  • Ireland. Continent- Europe. ...
  • Singapore. Continent- Asia. ...
  • Qatar. Continent- Asia. ...
  • UAE. Continent- Asia. ...
  • Switzerland. Continent- Europe. ...
  • San Marino. Continent -Europe.
6 days ago

Which statement best explains why the United States grew into a world economic power? ›

The United States became one of the world's leading importers and exporters of goods. #### Key Concept Global Trade #### Key Concept Explanation Global trade, through becoming a major importer and exporter, was a crucial factor in the United States' rise as a world economic power in the 20th century.

Does the US economy drive the world economy? ›

The global economy depends on America to act as a main engine of growth, and global financial markets depend on US investors' outsize appetite for risk.

Is the US or China better off economically? ›

Data from top financial institutions like the World Bank show the gap between the two largest economies widened further last year. China's economy was just two-thirds the size of its geopolitical rival, down from 70 percent in 2022 and 76 percent in 2021.

Why does the US have a healthy economy? ›

Every economy faces tailwinds and headwinds, but in the face of many strong headwinds, the U.S. economy has proven to be consistently resilient. The American consumer, backed by a persistently tight labor market and recently rising real wages, is one salient force behind this economic resilience.

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